Another 'rath yatra' - Advani's second mistake : Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader L.K. Advani may have made the second big mistake of his political career by deciding to go on yet another 'rath yatra' (chariot ride) following the terrorist attacks in Varanasi.
Notwithstanding his claim that his objective is to foster national integration in the face of Islamist militancy, the yatra may expose him to the charge that he is trying to exploit the tragedy both for communal purposes and for his own political rehabilitation after his unceremonious removal from party president's post at the behest of the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS).
If these suspicions about his motives linger, the yatra is likely to damage his career even more than his pro-Mohammed Ali Jinnah remarks last year that aroused the ire of the RSS and led to his marginalization in BJP politics.
The reason why Advani opted for the latest venture will seem obvious to many. It was a similar journey in 1990 which boosted his party's position as well as his own. However, the Somnath-to-Ayodhya trip of 1990 was also marked by widespread communal violence and paved the way for the demolition of the Babri mosque two years later.
It is the fear that the present yatra will lead to similar outbreaks which makes Advani's move seem like a cynical exercise. As one commentator has pointed out, while the need of the hour is to unite in the face of terrorism, Advani has chosen a potentially divisive move aimed at consolidating the vote of those Hindus who are communal-minded.
His charge that the Manmohan Singh government's policy of minority appeasement has encouraged the terrorists can appear to deliberately erase the difference between the largely peaceful Indian Muslim community and the terrorists who are suspected to have Pakistani links.
This is a dangerous accusation since it can encourage the hotheads in the RSS Parivar (ideological fraternity) to target innocent Muslim families just as the Babri Masjid was targeted in 1992.
If Advani's calculation is that he can revive the pro-Hindu mood of the 1990 yatra that propelled the party to power in New Delhi between 1998 and 2004, he is mistaken on several counts.
For a start the BJP's success then was not the result of only the yatra, although it did help in mobilising the Hindu vote by arousing anti-minority sentiments.
Among the other reasons were the Congress decline, the failure of the Janata experiments of non-Congress governments in 1977 and 1989, continuing economic stagnation and a popular yearning for
change.
The BJP fitted the bill because it was seen as a party with nationalistic credentials, led by leaders like Advani and Atal Bihari Vajpayee with a clean image.
But now the scene is different. First, the six years in power in New Delhi have robbed the BJP of its shining image. Second, the Congress has recovered much of its lost ground.
A further reason why Advani's yatra may hit formidable road bumps is the new India-US agreement, which has given a huge boost to the government's position in the eyes of the 300-million-strong upper and middle classes.
The US recognition of India as a major global power may be disconcerting for the Left but it will appeal to exactly those sections that had earlier tilted towards the BJP with its ultra nationalist, even xenophobic, attitude.
It was to please these sections that the Vajpayee government had carried out the nuclear tests of 1998, nearly a quarter of a century after Indira Gandhi carried out the first 'peaceful' nuclear test.
Now, the harvest of these clandestine nuclear tests is being reaped by the Manmohan Singh government with Washington's acknowledgement of New Delhi as a virtually legitimate nuclear weapons state. To add to this new status, the government has also been gaining in public estimation because of the economic buoyancy.
In addition, the clear hint by the US that it no longer adheres to the earlier Cold War policy of equating India and Pakistan is also a huge plus point in the government's favour.
In the context of a sense of well-being and confidence among large sections of the population, Advani's attempt to turn the clock back with a stale repetition of his earlier peregrinations is unlikely to help either him or the BJP.
What is more, the reiteration of the old slogans against the Congress of minority appeasement suggests that the party remains stuck in its communal groove, from which - ironically - it was Advani who tried to steer it away by his praise of Jinnah's secular observations.
The belief that Advani, 78, was trying to acquire a new image as a secular person in the Vajpayee mode has now been dashed by his return to the methods of 1990.
Instead of reviving his career, as he seems to hope, and persuading the RSS to be more lenient towards him, the yatra may cause a further setback by showing him up as a person not only uncertain of what he stands for but all too willing to follow a line which seems convenient at the moment.
If the 1990 yatra marked Advani's arrival on the political scene with a bang, the present one may pave the way for his departure with a whimper.
(Amulya Ganguli is a political analyst. He can be reached at aganguli@mail.com)
